“‘담대한’ 경제 지원 ‘북한 호응’ 기대 어려워…지속가능한 협력·개혁개방 촉구 필요” > 경제

U.S. economic experts predicted that it would be difficult to expect the North Korean regime to respond to South Korean President Yoon Seok-yeol's massive economic aid initiative. Some suggested that it is necessary to use a method of urging reform and opening up rather than large-scale support to North Korea. Reporter Kim Young-kwon listened to the opinions of experts.

Professor William Brown of the University of Maryland, a North Korean economic expert, told VOA on the 17th that South Korean President Yoon Seok-yeol is more concerned than expected about the "bold initiative" recently proposed to North Korea.

It is a "wrong proposal," which is little different from the previous South Korean government's economic aid plan to North Korea, and "large-scale support (rather) hurts North Korea's exports."

[Recording: Professor Brown] "하지만 문제는, 경제학자로서, 잘못된 종류의 잘못된 제안입니다. 북한은 과거에 너무나 많은 지원을 받았습니다. 그리고 그것은 아무런 도움이 되지 않습니다. 북한 경제에 피해를 입혔을 겁니다. 너무 많은 원조는 나쁜 것입니다. 그리고 저는 북한이 어떤 면에서는 너무 많은 원조의 희생자라고 생각합니다. 그래서 너무 많은 원조를 주는 것의 문제는 국가의 수출을 해친다는 것입니다."

North Korea received a lot of aid from the former Soviet Union, China, Japan, Europe, South Korea and the United States in the past, but there were no beneficial results and North Korea became a victim of too much aid, such as harming the North Korean economy.

Brown said North Korea must be a good exporter like South Korea, Taiwan, and China for its stable economic development, and pointed out that too much support is a "wrong approach" to insensitive to the need for such exports.

South Korean President Yoon Seok-yeol said in his Liberation Day congratulatory speech on the 15th, "If North Korea switches to substantial denuclearization, we propose a bold idea to drastically improve the North's economy and people's livelihood."

"We will conduct large-scale food supply programs for North Korea, support for power generation and transmission infrastructure, modernization of ports and airports for international trade, technology support programs to boost agricultural productivity in North Korea, modernization of hospitals and healthcare infrastructure, international investment and financial support programs."

However, U.S. economists predict that such a proposal may help the South Korean government's moral cause, but it will be hard to expect a response from North Korea.

North Korean State Councilor Kim Jong-un has already declared that he will firmly maintain nuclear power through party conventions, and North Korean state media have launched a barrage of criticism against South Korean Foreign Minister Park Jin-jin's similar remarks.

In fact, when Minister Park Jin attended the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) earlier this month and said he would prepare a "bold plan" to dramatically improve the North's economy and residents' lives, North Korea's media "Unification Shinbo" likened it to the former Lee Myung Bak government's "non-nuclear and open 3000" and criticized it for "taking out again after 10 years."

Professor Brown pointed out that Kim Jong-un, who has nothing to show but strengthening nuclear power for more than a decade after taking office, will "take the bold idea as an insult."

[Recording: Professor Brown] "네, 잘난 척하는 거예요. 네, 잘난 척하는 걸 팔려고요 킴은 아마 그것을 경멸하는 것으로 받아들일 거예요. 네, 감자칩을 드릴게요. 알다시피, 만약 여러분이 제가 원하는 것을 한다면, 여러분이 아는 강아지를 대하는 것처럼, 만약 제가 여러분에게 감자칩을 준다면, 여러분은 짖는 것을 멈출 것입니다, 그렇죠? 약간 그런 느낌이에요. 북한을 마치 당신이 대접하는 것처럼 말이죠.

For the North Korean leader, the "bold idea" can be taken as an insult to treat North Korea as a poor country in Africa, as if the South Korean government would give potato chips if it showed off and stopped barking.

He also pointed out that even if North Korea accepts it, it is questionable how to trust the North Korean regime, which has broken numerous agreements in the past and has not returned loans, and make numerous investments in infrastructure construction.

South Korea's Unification Ministry said in a data released last month that the North Korean government's loans to South Korea amounted to $880 million in May, including principal and overdue interest, but were not repaid without explanation.

Former World Bank adviser Bradley Bapson said the bold initiative could be an inherently beneficial and good starting point for North Korea, which is in crisis, but added, "I doubt how to find a channel for cooperation and investment."

The bold idea seems to be "an ill-defined resolution on how to combine North Korea's support with North Korea's part on denuclearization."

[Recording: Former adviser BAPSON] "비핵화에 대한 북한의 역할과 이 두 가지를 어떻게 결합하는지에 대한 명확한 약속은 말할 수 없습니다. 그리고 물론 제재 완화에 대한 언급과 그것이 어떻게 이 모든 것의 일부가 될 수 있는지에 대한 언급은 없으며 의미 있는 제재 완화가 이루어지지 않는 한 북한은 이 문제들 중 어떤 것도 다룰 수 없을 것입니다."

As there is no mention of sanctions relief in the bold initiative, there will be no room for the North Korean government to respond if there is nothing meaningful about the sanctions.

Bapson also said the bold initiative would require "open and collective support from China, Russia, the United States and Japan" as well as South Korea's support, as the previous six-party agreement did.

Ri Jung-ho, an elite former member of the North Korean Workers' Party's Office 39 and a policy advisor to North Korea in Washington, dismissed VOA on the 17th, saying, "There is virtually no possibility that Kim Jong-un will respond to the bold initiative."

The Kim regime is so firm that it is impossible to give up nuclear weapons and change the path of the military, and will not accept President Yoon's proposal because there is a nightmare in which the people thought favorably of Korea through inter-Korean economic cooperation in the past.

[Recording: Lee Jung-ho] "When economic cooperation with South Korea progresses and support comes in, (the residents) yearn for South Korean society, which they are most afraid of." Didn't you block all South Korean goods during Kim Jong Il's time? I'm blocking it now. I don't think Kim Jong Un will respond to this announcement."

Lee recalled that he vividly remembers the instructions given by then-North Korean leader Kim Jong-il about serious problems in North Korea that occurred during economic cooperation with South Korea's Roh Moo Hyun and Kim Dae Jung governments.

[Recording by Ri Jung-ho] "South Korea is better off among North Koreans." So, people's hearts were focused on Korea. This is a very dangerous factor in maintaining the current Kim regime. So Kim Jong-il gave directions himself. Don't fantasize about South Korea. Catch everything that sells South Korean goods. We have banned all South Korean goods from being brought in. So will the North Korean dictator accept that the South Korean government will support him with bold initiatives?"

In fact, Heo Kang-il, who was directly involved in the Kaesong Industrial Complex and other inter-Korean economic cooperation for eight years as a member of the Galaxy Trade Bureau under North Korea's 39th room, told VOA that North Korean officials knew the taste of money then.

[Recording by Heo Kang-il] "In the early 2000s, the North Korean system was really pathetic. However, as aid came in, technology came in, and exchange came in while cooperating with South Korea, the North Korean elite knew the taste of money thanks to South Korea at that time. In fact, at that time, North Koreans felt that Korea was living well and had a lot of money. So of course we know. There's a way to live this well, and I'm upset that I'm sanctioned for testing useless nuclear weapons and missiles."

Huh said people who have experienced this or have been dispatched abroad know that Yoon's "bold plan" is good, but everyone will agree that it is practically impossible.

[Recording by Heo Kang-il] "The North Korean regime never bows to South Korea even if it dies. Moreover, I have never compromised with a conservative government. North Korea wants South Korea to be dragged in its own way, and it doesn't want them to be dragged in South Korea's way. So this bold initiative is really good, but the elite in North Korea know it's not feasible."

Professor Brown of the University of Maryland said that for this reason, the Yoon Seok-yeol administration should also make efforts to directly inform North Koreans of its ideas.

[Recording: Professor Brown] "북한 사람들과 대화하는 것이 매우 중요하다고 생각합니다. 미국은 북한에 좋은 확실한 정보를 전달하기 위해 많은 노력을 기울여야 합니다. 윤 총장이 지금 북한 주민들과 대화하려고 하는 그런 얘기를 하고 있는 것 같습니다."

The Western world, including South Korea and the U.S., needs to send useful and certain information to North Korea to explain to the people exactly why North Korea's economy is chronically poor, and President Yoon needs to explain to the North Koreans his economic support plan.

Brown says the North Koreans are the most afraid of Kim Jong Un's regime than the U.S. and South Korea, and it would be much more beneficial to drastically increase the inflow of information to North Korea, not military response, if it provokes them in the future

In addition, since the agricultural sector is not subject to U.N. sanctions, it is predicted that North Korea will have more room for acceptance if South Korea lifts its own sanctions to import agricultural products from North Korea.

Ri said North Korea should continue to call for reform and opening up, just like China.

[Recording by Ri Jung Ho] "Have you seen China investing boldly in North Korea?" Absolutely not at all. The Chinese government knows the socialist system, so if you don't reform and open it, it knows that no matter how much we give, it will pour water into the bottomless pot. I think North Korea will fail if it reform and opens up. Why? You don't have that much confidence? Is your system so unstable? The South Korean government should say this. The whole world is reforming and opening up. North Korea says it is a military powerhouse, a ideological powerhouse, a political powerhouse, and what are you afraid of?

Experts also say that even if the government changes its government to trust the North's offer, a public agreement from the political community will be needed to ensure sustainable cooperation.

I'm Kim Young Kwon from VOA News.

출처 : VOA한국